Oh crap Bento, what have I done? Ron Paul doesn’t believe in um. . . Evolution.
I mean it is a theory, as he says. Do you think he may have been quoted out of context?
(via Andrew Sullivan)
Monthly Archives: December 2007
Ron Paul is Spinoza-ier than thou
Hey Bento, Merry Christmas, ho ho ho. Though of course as true Spinozists we resist the blandishments of organised religion, I still think we can join in the capitalist orgy of consumption with relative philosophical impunity. Also, we can certainly applaud the occasion of Jesus’ birth, as we are wholeheartedly in favour of his core products of ”love, joy, peace, moderation, and goodwill to all men,” as Spinoza put it. Minus of course the whole salvation myth, violence, sexual repression and all that sort of thing, which seems to have followed as well.
We were early in our praise of Ron Paul, and the more people jump on the bandwagon, the prouder I am that we support this guerrilla insurgency striking at the barbarous heart of the GOP. If we see the US Constitution as a truly Spinozist document, as we should, and understand that his whole political platform is strict constitutionalism, how can we see him as anything other than the most Spinozist politician of our time? We are duty bound to support him, as I know you do, Bento. Continue reading
Posted in Fellow Collegiant
I don’t much like Google, either
Apologies, dear reader, for neglecting you, but there have been some tough times recently. Baruch has been rather depressed, as he faces what he thinks will be a quite nasty environment for stocks next year. Living in the present, however horrible it is, is much more fun than looking forward to 6 months, maybe even 12, of gloom, a narrowing market, and the inevitable short-covering rallies which will blow up the index put positions he uses in a futile attempt to keep the wolf from the door.
Yesterday was his last working day of the year. Although his Epicurean Dealmaker-blocking evil deep packet inspection spyware position blew up and had to be put out of its misery, it was actually pretty good, a fitting end to Baruch’s wildly successful 2007. He is on holiday! Now he can devote himself entirely to you, his adoring public.
To the matter in hand. You know I hate Apple. Now I want to tell you about how I dislike Google.
Posted in Lens grinding, Stupid Cartesians
Malayse
Baruch, my work has taken me to Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia, I am surprised to learn, does not allow assemblies of more than two people without a permit. Human rights activists assembling to protest this violation of a basic human right are (ironically?) arrested. In another case, a Hindu activist is arrested for sedition for using the words “ethnic cleansing” to describe the policy the Malaysian government is pursuing towards Hindus. I have no idea whether that’s accurate or not (it’s probably not that bad), but whatever happened to the freedom to hold opinions not to the liking of the government in power?
But my wrath this morning is not really against the government; it is aimed squarely at that sorry excuse for a propaganda organ masquerading as a serious mainstream newspaper, the New Straits Times. Check out their front page this morning. It left me gasping:
Click to enlarge
Yes, it is the usual suspects, and they are protesting too much, and they’re doing it in the name of democracy no less! (The alleged bit policeman was of an undercover cop, we find. He bares his arm on page two, and I looked in vain for bite marks).
On page three, a full page ad for Lexus. Not that there was any danger of me ever buying a Lexus, but I can assure you that if we asked what Spinoza would do, he would be boycotting Lexus (and Honda, the other major multinational advertising in the New Straits Times).
Posted in Barbarians, What Would Spinoza Do?
Goldman Sucks?
Has Goldman Sachs staff collectively taken a Bear pill? I would say yes. Last week or the week before each analyst team covering the tech space, which as you will all know by now is my beat, wrote a note updating their estimates and recommendations as if a severe consumer recession in the US and rest of the world was going to take place. I imagine, but cannot be sure, and don’t have the wherewithal or time to check, that the teams in other sectors have done the same. Given the diversity of beliefs between randomly selected equity analysts on any particular topic — except maybe on Google, Apple and RIMM, where they march in a lockstep “BUY” formation, it would seem odd that such a collection of highly intelligent and adaptable, if not necessarily wise, individuals, can all share the same deeply held conviction at the same time. It would make lunchtime conversation at the canteen particularly boring at the very least. To me, it has the smell of a “policy decision”.
Ben Stein sees a nefarious plot by GS to destroy US prosperity by talking up their short book. The econo-bloggy firmament, led by the redoubtable Felix, has written a collective pooh-poohing back at him. Stein speaks for many, however; just this week I myself suspected the horned and tailed GS head of Asian research of going thru my portfolio from the top to bottom, getting his homunculus-like minions to downgrade to either a sell or a neutral (which as we all know is merely a polite way of saying “sell”) all our largest and most beloved positions, from Korean and Taiwanese LCD panel makers, to Ali Baba, the Chinese internet holding company and recent star IPO, and a certain Chinese handset component name of whom I may write more about one day (and who GS is going to take a serious bath betting against). This makes me very cross. I complained to my GS salesguy that this was beginning to look personal. Oh no of course not, he said. But something in my lizard brain told me he was lying, that GS employees are in fact trained to lie from birth.
As Stein writes, there is a particular hegemonic quality to Goldmans that makes it easy to be paranoid. In my judgement I do not think there is enough data out there yet to be able to make a definitive bearish judgement on markets or not — on certain sectors sure,but another 2000-2002, certainly not. Stein makes the good point that at the very least we don’t know the effectiveness of the policy response yet. By going out on a limb like that, GS lays itself open to the accusation that it is trying to push the market and later the economy in a particular direction, in a sort of Sorosian reflexivity thing. With so many fingers in so many political and financial pies, should one suspect GS of such a motive, it would be easy to conclude that they also had the means.
But of course reaching both conclusions would also mean you were wrong. All GS is doing is “taking the under”. It is a classic broking best practice. Let me explain: Continue reading
Posted in Fellow Collegiant, Lens grinding, Stupid Cartesians
An Immanent Age
Baruch, you may well already be aware of Charles Taylor’s book A Secular Age, which regards the perceived retreat of religion from the public sphere in the west as a regretful trend. Obviously, we do not (nor am I convinced that in the US this is the case). A great post by The Immanent Frame looks at how Taylor (mis-)characterizes Spinoza’s views when evaluating our hero’s contribution to secularism. Well worth a read for Spinoza aficionados out there.
Posted in Philosophising, What Would Spinoza Do?
What does Mitt Romney mean by ‘Enlightenment’?
Baruch, do you think Mitt made scare quote gestures with his hands when he read this passage in his speech today?
I’m not sure that we fully appreciate the profound implications of our tradition of religious liberty. I have visited many of the magnificent cathedrals in Europe. They are so inspired … so grand … so empty. Raised up over generations, long ago, so many of the cathedrals now stand as the postcard backdrop to societies just too busy or too ‘enlightened’ to venture inside and kneel in prayer. The establishment of state religions in Europe did no favor to Europe’s churches. And though you will find many people of strong faith there, the churches themselves seem to be withering away.
And this is something to regret? What a Leibniz this guy is. He is also flat-out wrong about what the founding fathers thought about religion in the public space — they were barely deists, them founding fathers, and would not ever have countenanced institutional expressions of piety on the government dime, no matter how ‘ecumenical’.
Posted in Stupid Cartesians
I say imported, you say exported…
Baruch: I was in a hotel room in Berlin scanning the news, doing a pretty good job of filtering out the ads, but then one ad caught my eye. It was a video of kids jumping on “imported” oranges, followed by an invite to see more uses for “imported” oranges.
Considering that they don’t grow oranges in Germany, I was curious as to what might justify such a monumental waste. Turns out there is a farmer Dave, supported by the Co-op of Florida Citrus Growers, who runs a blog inciting violence on foreign oranges, where by foreign he means not from the US, as opposed to not from Germany. Silly me!
Strangely, his motivation does not seem to be that domestic oranges are better, but that imported oranges are offensive to him. Two thoughts come to mind:
- I wonder if this kind of naked nationalism resonates among US readers of Yahoo news. It’s an honest question.
- I am going to click on every such ad I see by the Co-op of Florida Citrus Growers, but only when outside the United States. Serves them right for being oblivious to the existence of the rest of the world.
Posted in Stupid Cartesians
Consistency is the Hobgoblin of the small mind
Yes, we sold a bunch of RIMM today and I am not going to be inconsistent on my blog. I must thus inform you that I remove my fictional long in RIMM. It’s something to do with an ageing consumer portfolio; at high multiples things have to be pretty perfect, super-duper DCF or not. I think the stock will make money in the next 12 months but I fear in the near term I will be wrong, estimates will come down and those multiples contract.
This inconstancy would appear embarrassing to normal people, however it is in fact the mark of an investing genius, I assure you. Certainly Spinoza would not persist in error.
However I maintain my AAPL short! Replace my RIMMs with Nokias. 2x short AAPL 2x long Nokia.
Posted in Lens grinding
