Monthly Archives: May 2008

They should have built the LHC under Cairo

Peter Woit: “The LHC has to have a winter shutdown so that the residents of Geneva don’t freeze to death, and that will start in late November.”

Spinoza wouldn’t have minded a lack of electricity. Oh how modern technology makes us weak and spoiled. Genevois, grow some backbone already for the sake of science.

Eurovision 2008 is an Irony-Free Zone

It is customary to live-blog the Eurovision song contest on this site. It is what Spinoza would have wanted, great European that he was. It won’t mean anything at all to most of you, especially if you are US-based financial people, but then we only really blog for ourselves, so that’s OK. But it should mean something. Eurovision is a great window onto the current state of Europe, into the state of its development, and the mindsets of countries we know hardly at all.

More than that, for us it has largely replaced war. You Americans should try it. Have a geopolitical song contest with North Korea and Iran.

Annoyingly for you if you are interested, I’ll only be able to blog the first part, coz I have to tootle off to  the airport later and pick up a friend, who I will then have to entertain. But I’ll hopefully pick it up later.

First overall impression. Those hoping to sneer at the traditional kitsch of the Eurovision are in for a major disappointment. The songs are really really good! There’s no hopeless Balkan leather clad duffness with whips and over-acting. Even the Albanian entry was good. There hasn’t been a clunker so far, and we’re 12 songs in!! Turkey is on now, and we’re normally treated to something crap, but they are singing a really good rock ballad. I think this is extremely hopeful for our common European future! I feel more likely to support their entry into the EU, this is PROOF they can integrate! Continue reading

Alien resurrection

AP reports: Vatican: It’s OK to believe in aliens

The Rev. Jose Gabriel Funes, the Jesuit director of the Vatican Observatory, says that the vastness of the universe means it is possible there could be other forms of life outside Earth, even intelligent ones.

In an interview published Tuesday by Vatican newspaper L’Osservatore Romano, Funes says that such a notion “doesn’t contradict our faith” because aliens would still be God’s creatures.

Imagine the shock Funes will get when said aliens arrive on Earth and they have no idea what this god thing is he keeps on going on about. Or even worse, perhaps the aliens imagine themselves to be gods, and that we are their creatures. Perhaps it might even be true, and they are just checking up on us. Maybe they’ve got Jesus and Mohammed coming along for the ride. I feel a South Park episode coming on.

Seriously though, I think it much more likely that there are aliens around than that transubstantiation works, the dead can be resurrected and miracles happen — mainly because you don’t need to suspend the laws of physics for aliens to exist.

Update: The BBC carries much more from the interview, including the revelation that aliens may be free from original sin. Try telling that to Ripley.

Albert Einstein, Spinozist

Baruch! Albert Einstein, world-famous physicist but little-known fellow Spinozist, is having a letter sold at auction this week whose contents should finally put to rest that silly notion that Einstein was religious.

We know Spinoza left a strong impact on Einstein. I visited Spinoza’s home in Rijnsburg a few years ago and saw with my own eyes Einstein’s signature in the visitor’s book, dated 1920. In 1929 a Rabbi alarmed by the suggestion that Einstein’s theory of relativity might present a slippery slope to atheism asked Einstein for a clarification of his beliefs:

New York’s Rabbi Herbert S. Goldstein asked Einstein by telegram: “Do you believe in God? Stop. Answer paid 50 words.” In his response, for which Einstein needed but twenty-five (German) words, he stated his beliefs succinctly: “I believe in Spinoza’s God, Who reveals Himself in the lawful harmony of the world, not in a God Who concerns Himself with the fate and the doings of mankind.”

Spinoza’s God, of course, is exactly analogous to “Nature”. Unlike anyone else before him, Spinoza maintained that “God, or nature” is intrinsic to the universe (as opposed to extrinsic, e.g. a God that can create a universe). Thus, postulating the existence of God is no different than postulating the existence of a universe governed by physical laws. And that is something atheists can live with.

So what does the letter being sold at auction this week reveal about Einstein’s religious views? Einstein was writing in 1954 to the philosopher Eric Gutkind, and here is what he wrote, among other things:

The word god is for me nothing more than the expression and product of human weaknesses, the Bible a collection of honourable, but still primitive legends which are nevertheless pretty childish. No interpretation no matter how subtle can (for me) change this.

[...] For me the Jewish religion like all others is an incarnation of the most childish superstitions. And the Jewish people to whom I gladly belong and with whose mentality I have a deep affinity have no different quality for me than all other people. As far as my experience goes, they are no better than other human groups, although they are protected from the worst cancers by a lack of power. Otherwise I cannot see anything ‘chosen’ about them.

Those words could have been uttered by Spinoza 300 years earlier, and indeed Spinoza’s writings make those very same arguments. At one point, Spinoza writes that perhaps not everyone has the mental fortitude to abandon conventional religion — that his abstract notion of God = Nature may only really be accessible to a philosophical elite — and that conventional religion would suffice to bring happiness to the rest. In Steven Nadler’s Spinoza: A Life (p.290) we get this response from Spinoza to his landlady when she asked him if she has chosen the right religion:

One day, when Van der Spyck’s wife asked Spinoza whether he thought she could be saved in the religion that she professed, he replied: “Your religion is good, and you need not search for another one in order to be saved, as long as you apply yourself to a peaceful and pious life.”

In other words, belief is merely a means to an end; what is more important is good deeds. Still, you might think Spinoza is being a bit patronizing here to a good but not particularly clever soul.

Myself, I am a little less sanguine about belief — happiness at the expense of a realistic world view seems like too high a price to pay. Perhaps, however, I’ve been lucky, and I can’t fathom the kinds of misery that make the crutch of religion a necessity for many.

Apple Squash

I’m sorry to say Spinoza has been far from my mind, Bento. While you have been emulating him, coughing nobly on a sickbed, Baruch’s little mind has been awhirr with work and stocks and which ones to buy and avoid. Thus lack of posting. 

But lately Baruch has noted that AAPL stock has been on a tear in anticipation of the iPhone v.2 launch this or next month. Then he read this rather good post on business models by Baruch’s fiancée, Equity Private, who opined that with its superduper iPhone, Apple had broken free from the bonds of Porter’s 5 forces and the domination of conventional wisdom, and had redefined the handset industry. I had to disagree with her. I worry her analysis is too US-centric, because from where I sit quite the opposite seems true. I hope she will punish me severely for my insolence, and expect to enjoy it.

Yes, iPhone is the most elegant and sophisticated and user friendly phone on the market, it has set the agenda for the whole industry, and will be viewed for ever after as a watershed in the industry. Blah blah. But really, none of that matters, because iPhone v.1 was really an attempt to remake the business model of the handset industry, to redfine the rules in a way that nullified the advantages of the incumbents like Nokia and Samsung (Motorola is sadly no longer relevant, except as a cautionary tale). In this they have failed. Two bits of news make me think this:

  1. 3G iPhone is going to be subsidised by AT&T to sell at $199 with a 2 year contract, according to Scott Moritz at Fortune
  2. Vodafone, which semi-publicly rejected the harsh terms offered by Apple to take iPhone v.1, has announced its non-core-European (ex GB, DE and FR) properties will carry iPhone. Since then we have had a rash of similar carrier announcements from SingTel, to Telecom Italia. All are likely non-exclusive.

1) is rumour, 2) is fact. But both indicate Apple’s business model for v.1 may be a thing of the past.

I have long argued that the iPhone venture is Apple playing a weak hand as best it can, and that there is a very real chance it will be its undoing. Although it may not feel like it, and there’s likely still good news to come in the short term, overall risks for Apple have increased. They have lost the initiative and are playing by others’ rules. They are now swimming in a pool of sharks. Follow me, gentle reader: Continue reading

Spinozism now an officially recognized religion in Egypt

Baruch! I struck a minor coup for our cause this morning. Let me explain.

It was high time that I renewed my visa for Egypt. Until now I’ve always done so at an Egyptian embassy abroad. This time, through circumstances beyond my control, I found myself in Cairo with a visa that was about to expire and with no immediate plans to travel.

The only solution: A visit to the dreaded Mugamma. The Mugamma is a unique Egyptian institution, a massive squat gray building in the center of Cairo that acts like a sort of super-ministry of paperwork, licenses and permits. The insides are a warren of curving hallways, desks, numbered booths, waiting rooms, security checks and placards with instruction. Every imaginable activity in Egypt requires a permission slip from somebody in this building. The trick is finding that person. The task has driven people insane.

Among the Cairo expat community, Mugamma horror stories are great social currency. We all have friends of friends who spent days, dazed, trying to complete the intricate steps for whatever permit they needed; and there are rumors of people actually living in some of the further reaches of the place.

Forewarned, I came forearmed with the required passport photocopies and passport photo. After some aimless walking around, I found a window that sounded appealing — Temporary Tourist Residence Permits. I thought I might get me one of those, say for six months — much more interesting than a visa extension, no?

Remarkably, there was no wait. I was given a form, told to fill it in, buy some stamps (worth all of 2 USD) and come back.

So I filled in the form. All was well, until I hit a roadblock:

RELIGION: _____________

Well. How dare they ask. I should not have been surprised, however. Egypt’s religious composition is a matter of great importance to the powers that be, because the percentage of (Coptic) Christians in Egypt determines all manner of job quotas and budget matters. (Copts say they make up to 15% of Egypt’s population. The official figure is much lower.)

Religious identification has also been a rallying cry for Egyptian Islamists. As in the rest of the Muslim world, the concept of religious freedom is a decidedly one-way affair. Are you Christian and want to marry a Muslim girl? Easy. Just convert to Islam and the girl is yours. The state will gladly give you a new ID card with your new religious persuasion. But try to convert from Islam, and you face public disgrace, threats of vigilante killing and jail. After all that Mohammed’s done for you, you certainly don’t deserve a new ID card, you ungrateful bastard.

There has long been an additional problem for people who are not one of the three officially recognized religions — Muslim, Christian or Jewish. Egyptian Baha’is have had to wage a protracted campaign — only just recently successful — to allow them to leave blank their religious persuasion on their ID card, instead of being forced to lie by choosing one of the three obligatory options.

I knew all this as I pondered what to put down on the form as my religion. I certainly could not put down the truth — atheist — as me and my ilk tend to get deported or thrown in jail for such a public display of disaffection, just like that other great threat to Egypt’s public morality, the homosexuals.

But I didn’t want to put down what al the other expats put — Christian — because if anything I am anti-Christian. Christianity’s mythology is just as ludicrous as that of the Mormons or Scientologists, only older. I probably couldn’t get away by putting down “Muslim”, though that would be an acceptable ironic answer in my book, while putting down “Jewish” would only invite trouble. Leave it blank? I didn’t feel that was an option on this form, where the absence of an answer would leave a gaping hole, inviting scrutiny or a delay.

Then I had my stroke of genius. Before I could regret my impulsiveness, I put down “Spinozist” as my religion and handed in my bundle.

I was told to come back in two hours. That in itself was a shock — I have never heard of same-day service in the Mugamma for visas. And yet, 90 minutes later, there was my new temporary tourist residence permit, without a hint of trouble for my idiosyncratic “religion”. As far as I know, I am now the only certified Spinozist in Egypt.