Monthly Archives: February 2009

Markets don’t actually collide, you know

So Baruch had a go at reading the El-Erian book, When Markets Collide, by the fire in his Swiss ski chalet. He bought it because everyone seems to like it. It’s the FT’s 2008 business book of the year, on top of the Economist’s Most Interesting Reads list, etc.

Everyone who likes it is wrong. It is in fact unreadable; I only managed to get through about 100 pages and had to put it down. It is a bad book.

Let me preface everything that follows by saying unequivocally that Dr El Erian (if we are going to be formal about this), is a super brain. He gives good (if a bit stuffy) op ed in e.g. the FT. He is very good at describing how we got into our current mess, and I particularly appreciate his “heart attack” metaphor in terms what what has happened to the global economy. He even “drew inspiration” from Taleb, which makes him OK in my book. I hereby nominate him as a Fellow Collegiant of Ultimi Barbarorum, passed nem con. Continue reading

Do Androids Dream of Apple-Blackberry Crumble?

Macro, macro, macro, Bento, that’s all we get nowadays on these blog things. We can read about how we are screwed in some new and interesting way, or stuff about that guy Geithner/Paulson/Bernanke, what an idiot he is, or this is what I, the blogger, think is wrong with the latest bailout plan and we should do with the global economy (pick from a selection of half-baked hare brained memes). Isn’t that the econo-bloggy biosphere in a nutshell over the past couple of months, in fact all of 2008 with some notable exceptions?

I, Baruch, would like to pretend that some sort of sophisticated blogging ennui is why I’ve been largely radio silent since 2008. In fact I’ve been working my arse off in the office and playing Civilisation IV in my spare time. I did try and write a couple of posts, one of which was about how much I disliked the Mohammed El Erian book, but none of them panned out. Now I think I’ve got an econo-bloggy post I might actually finish, because it is on something I care about: kicking Apple fanboys in the goolies.

So here’s a post about something micro: I think Apple has blown it in the handset market, and the collapse is coming soon. You will recall my (rather insane and obsessed) contention that the iPhone may well blow Apple up, but was and is the only way they have to play a weak hand. Also, subsequently, my admiration of the actual phone, their amazing initial sales and my guess that Apple had a window to build scale in handset markets. Well, they did precisely nothing with their window and now, I suspect, it has closed. They may be toast. Except they and their fanboy analysts don’t know it yet. Continue reading