My completely unscientific look at the demographic in question makes me think that 1-upsmanship seems to be taking place on what sort of clever application/face/use you have. And not so much the physical device.

If anything, the prevalence of bluetooth headsets has made the physical device much less relevant.

In the long term, Apple has a sustaining model for profit with the various applications, and are much less tied to long term revenue from upgrades.

One tihng that is a continuing suprise is how poor windows mobile is. The prevalence of outlook should give them a huge natural leg up, and they manage to ruin it completely.

Wouldn’t Apple have to like, licence the OS for it to become the “Windows” of mobile computing?

The Razr analogy is flawed. For old-style cell phones that did nothing but voice and text, perhaps style and thinness were the major selling features; phones were functionally interchangeable and switching to a new brand was costless. But for a full-fledged mobile computing and Internet platform, what matters is apps and ease of use and there are much higher costs to switching (iPhone apps don’t work on the Pre).

Constant incremental improvements in features and speed are precisely what is needed to raise the bar for would-be competitors while their window of opportunity rapidly closes as network effects kick in, and the iPhone platform becomes the “Windows” of mobile computing: a license to print money.

No self-respecting handset launch is complete without a few lines. Hell, Apple would pay actors to stand in lines at the shops next to where the analysts hang out. Fact is, though, there is little relationship between the 1st week sales and the 3rd month sales after a hero handset launches (remember the original non-3G iPhone? massive initial sales but it was a dud) and the latter is what counts.

C’mon Josh, when you read stuff like that coming from the bulls it is EXACTLY the time to bet against it.

PS: I have NEVER bought a Mac or iPod or iPhone.

it looked like an american idol audition…tought to bet against right now

Sherlock, I have a strong negative bias on AAPL. Is true. But don’t listen to Bento. It is a philosophical thing. Spinoza would refuse to use closed, megalomaniacal systems. He would reject the slavish lockstep pseudo-religious adulation of the fanboi. he would use a PC. As an ex-commodities trader, he would also know it tends to be more profitable leaning against the herd at the right moment, so would probably have traded from the short side on the stock, as well.

Will, Walt, I agree with both of you. Walt, don’t be cross at Sherlock, I believe he is young, and robust pushback can refine a thesis. The swift and the flexible will win the race, though. Plus scale; you need scale.

Well, assuming anybody cares about the original idea, (not bad; worth exploring; I happen to disagree): there’s the little issue of User Experience. The sole touted features of the Pre were (a) multi-tasking, (b) nifty integration and (c) faster. These are all important features on today’s desktops and why not on palmtops, too?

The sole touted feature of the gPhone was (a) open source. Sank like a 100 lb. stone.

There may be a market for the “same features, just less well-integrated and slower,” but my guess is the race is to the swift, the flexible and the features for quite a while. Too bad about the RAZR — I loved it; resisted buying the iPhone until my RAZR crapped out — but then, I DID buy the iPhone for the features and Who Cares about the extra $50/month?

It’s dangerous to opine anti-mac, in part because of ravenous fanboys but also because of their consistent history of actually innovating. After all, the company has gone from zombie to human time and time again in its history.

As Baruch rightly points out though, other people can make smartphones. They are starting to make them well. Tech pundits are beginning to observe that given the migration of a wide variety of services to the Internet, hardware and operating systems are less relevant.

Sadly, that’s what Apple makes. I’m not saying S APPL L GOOG or any of that…I’m simply saying I’d rather ignore established players and focus on emerging technologies and on line services if I am forced to invest in technology at all.

Had Spinoza been alive today, he no doubt would be authoring on a Mac.

All i can tell you is when Mac business stabilizes, you will see AAPL’s growth numbers accelerate immediately, and significantly. A smarter trade, IMHO, would be long AAPL/PALM short ES/NQ.

PS: near term (6months), I expect AAPL to tank to 100$ and then a meteoric rise above 250$. We will see.

It is true I have made lots of mistakes in trading tech. But I am still here! Many are not. That has to count for something, surely. I think it is because I know how to take a loss.

Yes, I have lost money in QCOM, and you wouldn’t know that if I hadn’t told you. But FYI replacing L RIMM with L NOK against a S AAPL in Dec 2007 was a fantastic trade! AAPL tanked in the next 3 months almost 50%, RIMM about 30% and Nokia was almost flat. I would have made out like a bandit! If only I had done it real life. Also, please note I was comparing AAPL with GOOG in August 2008. L AAPL S GOOG would have made money over the next month. Then tanked. Then broke even. If I had left it on until now I would only be down 3%. Hopefully I would have been out. The thing that may also confuse you is timeframe; I don’t really say how long I hold these things for. Also, once they make a certain amount of money, I am out. And if they move against me a certain percentage I am out too. Right now I wouldn’t urge you to be long GOOG at all, by the way. It is not the best way to play Android. Maybe not even short AAPL. But if you had to be, an offsetting long HTC might be a good idea.

Anyway, I shouldn’t write so often on stocks. Comments like yours keep reminding me why it is a bad idea. One can easily be misunderstood. In fact I try and comment more on stocks I am not directly involved in. Believe it or not, I don’t ever trade AAPL.

Arnon. Yes, isn’t iPhone great? I was playing with one just today and thinking much the same as you. But we must be careful extrapolating from the present into the future. And too much success can be a bad thing.