Baruch came back from a lovely long holiday to find he may have been totally wrong in his last post about Apple. Embarrassingly, fist-bitingly wrong, in a 100%, black-is-white sort of way. He thought the new iPhone wouldn’t sell, as the new features on the new one weren’t, according to him, worth the upgrade. Wronggg!! Apparently old iPhone 3G is selling so badly that Apple is transferring all production to the 3G S, and taking the old iPhone off exclusivity in certain markets. Business has never been so good. It is early days, to be sure, and perhaps the situation will reverse itself. But right now the conclusions of my last post, however cogently argued, simply don’t hold water. In fact, the opposite seems to be happening.
This is good opportunity to ponder on what it means to be wrong in an investment context.
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