Monthly Archives: October 2009

iPorn exists! I take it all back

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(Asian Boobs)

As proprietor of a family site (in the sense that my mum sometimes reads the blog), Baruch is unwilling to show the images of one of the apparently best-selling apps on the iPhone, “ASIAN BOOBS“. Yes, it is Asian soft porn, charming oriental ladies in bras and knickers, in uncomfortable poses; it’s not pictures of vaguely silly people from China. Of course, this gives the lie to Baruch’s contention that there is no porn on the iPhone platform.

Baruch would like to claim this app only exists because someone at Apple reads Ultimi Barbarorum. No such luck.  Baruch’s scribblings on the banality of the iPhone’s walled garden might have forced the iPhone censor to respond in that inconsistent, atavistic manner of all pro “decency” censors through the ages, you would think, by allowing Asian Boobs onto the platform as a sop. But the app has apparently been a best seller for some time before Baruch wrote his post. Baruch fancies Apple have a group of blog flaks somewhere in Marketing whose job it is to influence commentary on prominent sites, or at least to report on Apple-related issues as reported in the blogosphere. The blog flak would take one look at Baruch’s traffic on some blog rating site or something and realise he didn’t have to bother.

(Don’t bother checking Asian Boobs out by the way; the app is rubbish. You don’t even get to see any nipples).

Meanwhile in another threat to Baruch’s Apple-as-victor thesis, as Dear Reader Cash Mundy points out in comments, the Android axis has been going great guns this week, with Android 2.0 launched, the announcement of a lovely Garmin-killing free navigation app from Google, and the launch of the new Motorola Droid (and a host of follow-on machines from other) to peans of praise from the techno-bloggers. Is this the point when the tide suddenly changed, the El Alamein of Apple’s global smartphone dominance?

Maybe. Who knows? I think Android is definitely likely to clean PALM’s clock, and possibly RIM’s too. But while it looks exciting and all, it also looks very fiddly. Do I want “widgets”? Whatever the hell they are. Do I want my phone constantly bleeping at me with the tweets of distant acquiantances I met once in a bar and don’t know how to tell to sod off, do I want Facebook offers of fricking virtual Bonsais and the latest appeal to stop dogs being used as shark bait force fed to me while I am in meetings or trying to play minesweeper? I suspect Android will be a mess; will all the apps work on all the different hardware configs of the thousand different manufacturers in the ecosystem? How will it work with the Verizon app store, the Vodafone store, the Google-hosted app store etc? Will it be as crap as Gmail (Baruch still has terrible problems using Gmail)? Will it actually have porn? And most importantly, will Google be able to pay it the consistent attention it deserves, outside of brief spurts of focus like we got this week? Prioritizing everything at the same time in one’s quest to organise the world’s information must be hard.

My current thinking is that Android manufacturers probably come to dominate the non-Apple part of the market, but probably don’t flatten the trajectory of iPhone adoption. Apple has many things it can do to step on the gas if it looks like someone is catching up: accelerate the end of operator exclusivity, create a portfolio of devices at different price points and/or, worst of all, decide to accept a lower gross margin, a merely impressive 50% rather than the quite astonishing 60% they are supposed to be getting, and cut price.

But let’s hope, as I said, that I’m wrong.

Where’s the iPorn?

Baruch is slowly coming to terms with the ghastly truth. Apple is closing down everyone else in the smartphone market, and it seems that nothing can stop it.

For over 10 years the mainly European giants of wireless, the operators, equipment and handsets makers, touted the bright sunlit uplands of our 3G mobile internet future their products would lead us to. Well, they didn’t. Total fail. Handset makers never got their act together, never worked out how to make it easy to use the interwebs. Meanness, fear and general hopelessness meant operators never spent the capex; making fat margins, no-one wanted to rock the boat. Equipment makers were slow to release the fastest network upgrades. Everyone was culpable in their inaction, and until about 2 years ago it looked like we were never going to get anything like what we had been promised in the powerpoint presentations.

But now we are there; look around you at all the people browsing the web on touch screens, using mobile apps, downloading music and watching video. It took an outsider, the least Spinozist company in the world, and an (overpriced) PC maker to boot to make it happen. We have to face facts: the mobile internet has been created, and is now owned and controlled by, Apple, and we owe them a debt of gratitude. Those who know Baruch will realise how nauseating it is for him to write that.

Now read on to find out why all this is in fact a Bad Thing:

Continue reading

What’s an export? Seriously.

Baruch the amateur economist has been mulling this question for a while now, and still doesn’t know. Baruch was reading this World Bank blogpost (via Paul Kedrosky)* discussing how much we can rely on China to pull us out of our current funk, which we’ve just been reminded us we are sort of still in.

It makes the reassuring point that China has been the global economic growth engine for some time already, accounting for 20% of global GDP growth over the past decade, twice the contribution of the US. So presumably stagnation in the US, zero growth, would be fine for global growth, ceteris paribus everywhere else, so long as Chinese growth was to increase proportionately, and it’s supposed to. This of course is great news. Except then the blogpost then starts to cavil because the blogpost is actually called “China Can’t Do it Alone”, and then it starts a discussion on how Chinese imports aren’t actually going up very much at all:

Assuming China’s bilateral trade surpluses decline in equal measure, increasing Chinese net imports would add less than 0.1% of GDP to US final demand this year. This simply pales in comparison with the discretionary fiscal stimulus measures . . . implemented in the US (and other advanced economies).

The only way China can pull the US out of the slump is by importing more, it would seem, and it isn’t doing it. So in other words when these stimuli expire, and they will, we’ll all be stuffed again and China won’t help us at all. The authors conclude,

China is too often seen as a one-stop shop for the crisis recovery. A replacement for the US consumer? Check. A source of low-cost borrowing to stimulate your OECD economy? Check. A source of investment funds for emerging, commodity-rich economies? Check. . . Alas, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is

As a conclusion this does sound possible. But the path the WB bloggers take to get there, viz China isn’t importing more relative to exports, doesn’t make any sense when it comes to looking at the technology sector. I think in tech at least, that discussion is pretty irrelevant.

It’s hard to talk about a trade balance between China and the US in tech hardware, when almost all the hardware, and many of the components that go into the finished good, are “made” in China itself. There isn’t any balance. It’s all “export” then. Hardware and assembly outsourcing was probably one of the key drivers of the trade imbalance between China and the developed world this decade. 

But of course it isn’t proper “exporting”, is it? It’s outsourcing. In fact I really don’t know what to call it. Let’s look at the not-so-humble iPhone. Continue reading