Wait, that’s not supposed to happen

I’ve been busy. And am on holiday, having spent what feels like a week on a plane. That’s why this isn’t a totally timely post, the original story being like, 2 weeks old. But can this be true? Swedish internet traffic dropped 50% at the start of April and hasn’t recovered?

Are the French following suit? Hopefully not (though it is a much kinder way of dealing with piracy than shooting the teenagers involved in the head).

And I was always told “internet traffic always goes up”. File that away with “US house prices never go down” and “safe as money in the bank”.

Baruch imagines it would make the sales reps for Scandinavia at Cisco and Juniper even more unhappy than they were in Q1. That’s probably a few carrier class routers that just got their “sales cycles lengthened”.

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5 thoughts on “Wait, that’s not supposed to happen”

    1. I dunno Michael. Intuitively the story makes sense, given that video and file sharing are the two biggest bandwidth drains in any public data network. I mean Comcast spent millions on DPI stuff from Sandvine and destroyed brand value after it restricted “excessive” bittorrent use on its network. I am shocked if it really is 50% of traffic, though so much in life is surprising, isn’t it?

      If I was Cisco I would suddenly get religion on a more liberal interpretation of copyright and lax DRM, and let loose my lobbyists.

  1. Cisco has nothing to worry about. It doesn’t matter to Cisco whether their servers end up in Sweden or in Vanuatu. Do you think that the 50% drop in traffic to Sweden (assuming it’s not an artifact) didn’t result in a corresponding increase elsewhere?

    1. No, i don’t see why it should have resulted in an increase elsewhere — internet traffic is not a zero-sum game. If Swedes, who like to use the internet, sudenly download fewer movies cereris paribus this is a net loss of internet traffic. Telia Sonera (the main telco there) and other providers regularly buy shiny new routers and/or capacity adding line cards on the understanding that traffic on them grows at about 40%-50% a year. These massively expensive machines would now be under-utilised. That means they won’t need to buy any new ones for much longer than they would normally have to.

      Unless of course it is merely a blip, and the traffic comes back pretty quick, and illegal file sharing is so popular that ISPs turn a blind eye.

      So that IS bad news for CSCO — actually they may not care so much about Sweden. But Sweden AND France is a significant bunch of business. More that that, it may be a trend that spreads further.

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